As the 2024 US elections approach, the financial markets are buzzing with anticipation. Traders are preparing for what could be a period of significant volatility, with each candidate’s potential policies promising to shake things up in different ways. Whether it’s Trump making a comeback or Harris stepping into the Oval Office, the outcome of this election will undoubtedly ripple through the markets. While no one can predict exactly what will happen, one thing is clear: this election could create both risks and opportunities for those ready to act. With so much at stake, it’s a good time to start thinking about how different scenarios might impact your trading strategy. Here are 10 key instruments to keep an eye on, and how they might move under each presidency.
1. EUR/USD
A Trump win could strengthen the US dollar due to his pro-business policies, potentially hurting exports but boosting purchasing power, impacting the EUR/USD pair. Under Harris, the focus on domestic spending might lead to a weaker dollar, which could push the euro higher.
2. Tesla (TSLA)
Tesla’s stock is sensitive to energy policies. Trump’s focus on oil and gas might not favor Tesla, though its global reach could help mitigate any negative effects. A Harris presidency, with her push for renewable energy, could drive growth for Tesla through stronger support for electric vehicles and clean energy initiatives.
3. X
Elon Musk has been vocal in his support for Trump, and if Trump wins, X could potentially thrive in a less regulated environment, particularly around free speech. However, Harris might push for stricter regulations on tech and social media, which could create headwinds for X’s future operations and growth. That said, since Musk delisted X from the stock market, there’s no direct way for traders to benefit from this potential shift, leaving it more of an indirect factor to watch during the elections.
4. Oil (Crude)
Oil could see a boost under Trump’s pro-energy stance, leading to increased US production and potentially lower prices. Under Harris, environmental regulations might tighten, restricting supply and pushing oil prices higher over time.
5. Bitcoin (BTC)
Trump’s hands-off approach to regulation could favor Bitcoin’s growth, allowing the crypto market to expand with fewer restrictions. Harris may be more cautious, possibly introducing regulations that could slow down Bitcoin’s rise, focusing on consumer protection and financial security.
6. Apple (AAPL)
Trump’s hardline stance on China could affect Apple’s supply chain, leading to production slowdowns and potential revenue hits. In contrast, Harris may pursue a more diplomatic relationship with China, which could ease supply chain concerns and stabilize Apple’s outlook.
7. Dow Jones (DJI)
The Dow could benefit from Trump’s business-friendly policies, particularly in energy and finance. Harris’s policies might cause short-term volatility, but her focus on infrastructure and renewable energy could boost other sectors over time.
8. Nasdaq 100 (NDX)
Tech stocks may face volatility under Trump due to ongoing trade tensions with China. However, his deregulatory stance could benefit large tech companies. Harris, on the other hand, might introduce more regulatory oversight for big tech, which could slow growth, though it could encourage innovation in smaller tech firms.
9. S&P 500 (SPX)
Trump’s previous policies were a boon for the S&P 500, and another term could see similar gains. Harris’s emphasis on green energy and infrastructure might initially shake up the market, but it could also create opportunities for long-term growth in new sectors.
10. Gold (XAU/USD)
Gold is a safe haven in times of uncertainty, and the 2024 election will likely boost demand for it. A Trump win could increase global instability, driving gold prices up. Harris’s policies might cause inflation due to higher government spending, which could also benefit gold as an inflation hedge.
Election Volatility Brings Both Opportunities and Risks
The 2024 US elections could create big waves in the markets, and the best trading strategies will depend on your goals. For day traders, the short-term volatility around the election could present opportunities to capitalize on rapid price swings. Keeping a close eye on real-time market movements will be essential. Meanwhile, buy and hold investors might want to consider the longer-term impacts of each candidate’s policies on sectors like renewable energy, technology, and infrastructure.
However, with uncertainties looming, none of these scenarios are guaranteed. Both opportunities and risks are heightened around events like the US elections, so it’s crucial to do your own due diligence. Whether you’re day trading or planning for the long haul, trade smart, stay informed, and be prepared for both the upsides and the downsides.
